Conflict Intelligence Feed

Chemical War Index

REF: 16/05/2026 | 12:06:32 UTC | ID: b0c516da

Logistics Update: Hormuz Blockade

Strait of Hormuz flows remain severely restricted (est. 81% reduction in tanker traffic). Global supply chains for Nitrogen and Methanol are currently bypassing the Persian Gulf via the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 14-18 days to transit and $22-$35/mt in freight surcharges.

Global Energy Baseline

Brent Crude Oil Spot Market Premium (War Risk)

$109.24/bbl

▲ 67.0% YOY

Natural Gas (Dutch TTF) EU Ammonia/Cracker Input Cost

€62.15/MWh

▲ 45.2% MTD

Agriculture & Fertilizers

Urea (Granular, Illinois/US) Severe Supply Disruption (Gulf Origin)

$902.50/ton

▲ 55.4% (Conflict High)

Potash (MOP CIF Israel) ICL/Dead Sea Operations Risk

$362.00/mt

▲ 21.0% (Annualized)

Anhydrous Ammonia (FOB Middle East) Production Cut: Qatar/Iran Export Shutdown

$815.00/mt

▲ 32.8% (Post-Feb Peak)

Petrochemical Value Chain

Methanol (SE Asia Spot) Iranian Export Dominance (35% seaborne trade)

$555.00/mt

▲ 72.3% (Record High)

Polyethylene (HDPE/LDPE) Middle East Logistics Surcharge Applied

+25.4% Premium

Supply Fragility

Propylene (Polymer Grade USG) Upstream Feedstock Pressure

40.25 ¢/lb

▲ 20.2% (War Surge)

Logistics Intelligence Monitor

War Risk Surcharge

$3,500 /TEU

Cape Rerouting Delay

+16 Days

*Note: Insurance premiums for Persian Gulf transits have reached 1.0-2.5% of hull value, effectively grounding non-state-insured vessels.